Bitcoin gives cautious bull market signal
Some altcoins have recently climbed to record prices, while Bitcoin is approaching a critical turning point of its own. This is striking given the reasons investors have to remain cautious, from geopolitical unrest to rising interest rates. There has been a setback in Washington too, although it is proving less debilitating than initially thought. More on all of this in this edition of Bitvavoās Market News.
Market update
The crypto market had a strong week. TheĀ price of Bitcoin rose 7% from ā¬66,200 to a weekly close of ā¬70,700. For the first time since November, the weekly close across all exchanges and in all major currencies was above the 50-week average.
The last major hurdle is the May 6 high, at $83,000 in dollar terms and ā¬70,200 in euros. A clear break to a higher high, followed by sustained trading above this level would be an important signal. At that point, most investors are likely to start viewing the crypto market as in the early stages of a new bull market.
Some altcoins are painting an even more optimistic picture than Bitcoin. ETH and SOL are already trading well above their local April and May highs, while HYPE even recorded an all-time high last week.
The positive sentiment is remarkable against the backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical unrest. Higher oil prices, rising inflation, and higher interest rates have regularly weighed heavily on the crypto market in the past. Last week, the Clarity Act also stalled in the U.S. Senate. You might expect that to have dampened sentiment, but investors seem largely unfazed.
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No Clarity Act, but some clarity
It must have stung. After years of meetings, debates and negotiations, the Clarity Act stalled in the U.S. Senate last Tuesday. The bill needed 60 votes to advance to the next stage; the final tally was 49 votes in favor and 50 against. Not a single Democrat backed the bill, while three Republicans opposed it.
Negotiations continuedĀ right up to the vote. Emotions ran high, with both sides accusing each other of derailing the deal. There is one positive takeaway, however: it appears that genuine efforts to reach an agreement continued until the very last moment.
Formally, the Clarity Act has not definitively failed yet. In theory, negotiations over its content can continue. In practice, however, all eyes are now on the upcoming midterms, the congressional elections where the balance of power in Congress is at stake. In other words, political energy is now focused elsewhere. As a result, the chance of this bill passing in 2026 stands at a slimĀ 7% on prediction markets.
With the Senate now preoccupied, the two main U.S. regulators, the SEC and CFTC, are taking matters into their own hands. While they cannot enshrine these rules in law, their efforts should still provide the market with greater clarity. And the heads of both regulators are wasting no time.
On Thursday, the SEC presented itsĀ Innovation Exemption. This exception allows for trading in onchain securities, albeit with certain conditions. Chairman Atkins explicitly linked this policy in his presentation to the failure of the Clarity Act, and added another pledge: within the scope of his existing authority, he intends to bring U.S. capital markets onchain.
The CFTC also appears keen to take decisive action. The regulator has submittedĀ a new set of rules to the White House for review. The rules are expected to allow platforms like Hyperliquid to bring some of their services to the U.S. market.
The stalled legislative process is a goldmine for journalists, full of controversy and scapegoats. The Wall Street JournalĀ fired the opening salvo at Brian Armstrong. But the finger-pointing feels somewhat beside the point now that regulators are pressing ahead at full speed.
Clarity with a capital C may have failed, but clarity with a small c is still on its way.
In other news
CoinEx closes its doors after nine years. The Hong Kong-based crypto exchangeĀ will end spot trading on September 29, giving customers until December 22 to withdraw funds. According to founder Haipo Yang, a combination of low volumes, rising compliance costs, and increasing risks is behind the decision. Any funds remaining after December will be converted to USDT and held on behalf of their owners, but this comes at a price of 5% per month.
New funding round increases Kaikoās Series B to $110 million. S&P GlobalĀ is leading the extension, with prominent names like BNP Paribas, Nasdaq Ventures, and Royal Bank of Canada also participating. Together, they are investing an additional $57 million, on top of the $53 million Kaiko previously raised. The data provider plans to use the capital to further expand its infrastructure and institutional services. It is notable that investment in market infrastructure continues to attract interest even while the crypto market cools.
Japan prioritizes onchain finance. The FSA regulator aims to accelerate the use ofĀ tokenized deposits and stablecoins, among other things. Existing financial infrastructure will also need to be adapted to support them. The aim is to make the settlement of payments and securities transactions faster and cheaper, while addressing the usual concerns around consumer protection and financial stability. The upcoming edition of Japan's Fintech Week will focus on this theme.
Polymarket turned a blind eye to stolen payment card fraud. According to the Wall Street Journal, fraudsters attempted toĀ siphon off at least $10 million through bets and withdrawals. At its peak, more than 80% of deposits were flagged as fraudulent and rejected. Yet CEO Shayne Coplan reportedly saw no reason to intervene. His message to employees was to keep growing. If it ever came to light, the company could simply pay a fine later.
Satoshi Radio: This episode of Satoshi Radio centers on the Clarity Act. The bill has stalled. What does that mean for the U.S. crypto market? The hosts also look at the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the sustainability of the mounting U.S. national debt. The episode closes with the market update.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.