Signs of a bear market bottom
June ended with the lowest monthly close of this bear market. Yet for the first time, there are signs that selling pressure is decreasing, and investor behavior also appears to be shifting. In this edition of Market News, we look back on a difficult quarter and explore whether the foundations for a recovery are beginning to take shape.
Market update
Bitcoin closed the month of June at ā¬51,300, a decrease of 19%. This marked the lowest monthly close of this bear market, a low point previously held by February at ā¬56,800.
We have now seen three consecutive negative quarters. In the early stages of a bear market, fear and panic prevail; these later give way to capitulation and resignation, which is where we are now.
June began with a sharp decline, with many of the market's biggest names losing about 20% in just a few days. Since then, the market has largely traded sideways. Compared to the start of June, BTC and ETH remain down around 10%, while SOL and HYPE have recovered their losses. Excluding stablecoins, these are currently the #1, #2, #5, and #7 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
If prices pick up in the coming weeks, the question will be whether June marked the bottom of this bear market. For the first time, there are genuine indications that this could be the case, such as potential bullish divergences on the weekly chart. We will only gain more certainty once the weekly chart prints its first higher high, for which Bitcoin must climb above ā¬70,300.
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The HODLers seem to be back
On the surface, Bitcoin still looks weak. ForĀ eight consecutive weeks, money has flowed out of US Bitcoin funds. Since the week of May 15, there has been a total net outflow of more than $8 billion. In the week ending June 26 alone, $1.8 billion disappeared from the funds, with an additional $526 million in the week ending July 2.
These ETFs are highly liquid, easy to buy, and just as easy to sell. That makes them a convenient way to quickly gain exposure to Bitcoin, but also to reduce that exposure when market conditions change. That appears to be what we are seeing now. Data specialist Glassnode describes it as āinstitutional de-riskingā: with institutional investors adopting a defensive stance, and adding to the recent price weakness.
Just beneath the surface, something else is happening however. According to Glassnode, long-term holders have resumed accumulating. These are investors who typically hold their Bitcoin for a long period of time and have historically been less likely to sell when the market is under pressure. Their net position has begun to increase again after an extended period of net distribution.
ETF outflows therefore do not tell the whole story. For every seller, there is also a buyer who finds the price attractive enough. As a result, some Bitcoin appears to be shifting from highly liquid institutional allocations to investors with a longer-term outlook.
It is still too early to call this a definitive line of defense. Glassnode notes that this behavior historically often precedes recovery, but also adds an important caveat: the trend must persist longer before it can be considered a fully-fledged accumulation phase.
A second encouraging sign comes from K33. According to the exchange's research department, nearly 80% of all Bitcoin in circulation is now held by long-term holders, which is a new record. At the same time, relatively few older coins are being moved. Through June 6 this year, 218,421 Bitcoin that had been dormant for at least two years became active again, compared to 1.18 million BTC around the same date in 2024.
This brings us to a word older than Glassnode and K33's on-chain terminology: HODL. The term originated in 2013 as a typo on BitcoinTalk, but grew into the cultural shorthand for a classic Bitcoin strategy: don't sell just because the price moves. Hold on because your conviction hasn't changed.
In short, the HODLers seem to be back. This doesn't mean that summer has arrived just yet, but it could be the first sign that sentiment is beginning to turn.
In other news
Ethereum gets a dedicated front door for institutional finance. The new non-profitĀ Ethereum Institutional aims to help banks, asset managers, and other large entities navigate topics such as tokenization, stablecoins, and on-chain infrastructure. The organization seeks to provide a neutral point of contact for institutions that often lack a clear entry point into the decentralized ecosystem. This launch aligns with a broader shift in which the Ethereum Foundation is increasingly focusing on the core protocol, and independent organizations take on tasks related to adoption, research, and communication.
World brings an on-chain prediction market directly to Solana users. The mysterious project behind the slogan āTrade Everythingā turns out not to be a memecoin, but a fully on-chain prediction market. FollowingĀ its unveiling, trading in so-called āevent contractsā started immediately through Phantom, a popular Solana wallet. Chainlink provides the data feeds and settlement infrastructure, while Phantom handles distribution. World is launching with markets focused on cryptocurrencies and sports, but aims to quickly expand into the geopolitical and macroeconomic domains.
Cloudflare launches payment rails for an internet where AI agents are the customers. The so-calledĀ Monetization Gateway makes it possible to charge for access to web pages, datasets, APIs, and MCP tools on a per-use basis. Initially, transactions occur via stablecoins and the open x402 protocol. Cloudflare is trying to solve a problem exacerbated by AI: agents derive value from content and infrastructure without seeing ads or subscribing. With the Monetization Gateway, payment becomes part of the web request itself.
Strategy attempts to restore confidence with a more active capital policy. Early last week, Michael Saylor's company announced several new measures. The dividend on STRC was slightly increased, and the dollar reserve was reportedly replenished to over $2.5 billion. Additionally,Ā a program was introduced that allows for the sale of Bitcoin, up to a maximum of $1.5 billion. Those proceeds can be used to replenish the cash reserves that fund STRC dividend payments. In doing so, Strategy is acknowledging that its Bitcoin strategy also requires active capital management. Investors appear to welcome the move: MSTR and STRC have risen by over 20% since the announcement.
Satoshi Radio: TheĀ latest episode of Satoshi Radio covers every corner of the crypto world. President Trump makes an appearance, having earned hundreds of millions from his own crypto projects. Then there's Open USD, a new stablecoin taking on its rival, USDC. The episode also covers the troubles at Knaken, Strategy's new direction, and AI agents that can make payments. As always, the episode wraps up with the market update.
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