Trump launches $TRUMP

Just before his inauguration, Donald Trump launched a memecoin, rattling the crypto world considerably. Around the same time, Bitcoin hit a record-high price. It’s safe to say it was a whirlwind couple of days. Learn more in this edition of Bitvavo Market News.

Market update

The price of Bitcoin has risen 21% over the past week, climbing from €87,500 to €106,000. That's €3,000 higher than the December 17, 2024 peak, setting a new all-time high. Bitcoin also broke records when measured in dollars.

This surge ends the correction that began on December 17 and which lasted for just under five weeks. With a modest decline of 15%, it was a mild correction. If prices take another sharp dip now, it could signal the start of a new correction phase.

The similarities with last year are striking. The chart below illustrates the price movements from early 2024 to the present, compared with the same period the previous year. At play last year was the launch of the ETF, while this year, it is Trump's presidency. The crypto market is anticipating clearer and more favorable crypto policies under his leadership.

It was a turbulent weekend for many altcoins. The Trump family launched a number of memecoins, which had an interesting effect on the crypto market. Investors sold their holdings to first buy SOL and then TRUMP. While BTC, SOL, and TRUMP rose to new record highs, many other coins lost more than 10% in just a few hours.

It is quite conceivable that these coins will make up for their losses once the initial hype of the TRUMP launch is over. But the end of this correction is still a long way off for many altcoins. For example, ETH still needs to climb 20% to surpass the €3,900 high of December 17. SOL, on the other hand, is faring better. The chart below shows the trends over the past four years.

With Trump's first week in office still largely ahead of us, a volatile week is likely. Will we see new record highs or a sharp pullback?

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Trump launches $TRUMP

Less than a week before his inauguration, the incoming President of the United States launched his own cryptocurrency. The news appeared with little fanfare on his X-account - just a brief post with a link to a web page. At first, people wondered if the account had been hacked, but no denial followed. Then came the explosion.

The coin, $TRUMP, skyrocketed from a few cents to several dozens of dollars within hours. In no time, the memecoin had displaced other coins from the spotlight, sparking both wonder and rage. How could a world leader engage in crypto in such a way? Critics saw it as blatant self-enrichment. Supporters praised it as a sign of new opportunities for the industry. For those supporters, this was no joke, but a political signal: under Trump’s administration, crypto will be given free rein.

This is not the first time hype has shaken up the crypto world. Some are comparing it to the dotcom period of the early 2000s. Back then, the bulk of Internet projects failed, but those that remained laid the foundation for the world we live in today. The idea that crypto and blockchain technology could follow the same path suddenly feels a lot more realistic. Because while a memecoin may seem frivolous at first glance, its acceptance could legitimize blockchain technology for a much wider audience.

The effect on the market was immediate. Within a day, the price of Solana (the network on which $TRUMP was launched) rose 30%. Traders sold their positions in other memecoins to jump on the new trend, triggering ripples of activity. Even apps specializing in trading memecoins benefited from the sudden attention, with hundreds of thousands of new users.

But as is often the case with hype, concerns quickly came to light. There is a real risk that attention could shift away from serious companies and projects, instead focusing on a new wave of so-called celebrity coins. It remains to be seen how many of these will bring genuinely innovative ideas, versus those who simply want to make a quick buck. What is clear is that the crypto market will not settle down anytime soon.

The launch of $TRUMP feels like a glimpse of things to come. The coin symbolizes not only the changing role of crypto in the world, but also embodies the chaos and opportunity this market brings. One thing is certain: it's impossible to look away.

Bloomberg analyst: "Gonna be a wild year (again)." 

That's how Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas responded to Nate Geraci's recent list of ten predictions. In the ETF world, Geraci is an established name. As host of the ETF Prime podcast and co-founder of the ETF Institute, he knows the playing field like no other. Geraci regularly predicts trends in the ETF market, and this time he set his sights on the crypto ETFs that have been available to U.S. investors since last year.

According to Geraci, it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin ETFs overtake gold ETFs in size. His reasoning? The growing interest in Bitcoin from both institutional and retail investors. Unless Bitcoin experiences a major collapse, the path forward seems wide open.

Geraci also sees potential for Ethereum funds. He predicts that options on these products will soon be approved. But that's not all: proceeds from the staking of ether could eventually be distributed to ETF investors as a kind of dividend. This would make Ethereum ETFs even more appealing to asset managers and investors alike, marking an exciting development for the industry.

If Nate Geraci's predictions come true, 2025 could be another groundbreaking year for crypto in the U.S. investment world. More approvals and innovations in the ETF market would mean growing legitimacy and accessibility for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Returning to Balchunas; he envisions a similar scenario unfolding—provided the SEC makes a significant shift in its stance. And we know that the preparations for these changes are already underway.

In other news

• Judge authorizes sale of Silk Road Bitcoins. US authorities previously seized nearly 70,000 BTC during its investigation of this dark web marketplace. The sale is expected to take place via auctions, a method by which tech billionaires such as Tim Draper previously obtained bitcoin at low prices. Despite the ruling, there is speculation that some of the stock may not be sold, but retained as a strategic reserve.

• Tether moves headquarters to El Salvador. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino praised the country as a "beacon of freedom" and President Bukele an inspiring leader of "love, passion and intelligence." The company has secured licenses to operate as a crypto service provider and to issue stablecoins in the country. For El Salvador, Tether's move could have a major impact. The company's profits exceed a quarter of the nation's GDP. Tether emphasized its focus on emerging economies and its commitment to supporting Bitcoin adoption through this move.

• Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo buys Bitcoin as experiment. Italy's largest bank has bought €1 million worth of BTC through its own trading desk. The move is part of an experiment to explore how Bitcoin can be integrated into its services. Although officially labelled a trial, this step marks an important development in the acceptance of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions. Even major banks are showing curiosity about crypto’s potential future.

• XRP hits highest market value ever, surpassing $190 billion. The value of Ripple (XRP) has increased nearly 600% since the US elections. According to analytics firm Santiment, whales bought more than $3.8 billion worth of the token. The recent announcement that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is to step down and be replaced by a pro-crypto Republican has boosted confidence in XRP. Rumors that the currency will be included in a "U.S. crypto reserve" is fueling speculation of continued growth.

In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the hosts talk at length about the crypto prices, which bounced around last week. Of course, the most important news is also discussed, from Tether's departure for El Salvador to the most important developments on U.S. soil.