‘Investors are expanding their positions’
Most analysts agree that we are currently in a bear market. The key question now is whether the bottom has already been reached. As a result, investors are closely watching for signals that might provide clues. For example, Glassnode is examining investors' wallets to see whether holdings are growing or shrinking overall. We'll take a closer look at that in this edition of Market News, along with an update on the largest upgrade to Ethereum since 2022.
Market update
The price drop in early June seems to have lured buyers back to the bitcoin market, according to analysts from Glassnode on X. They base this view on the Accumulation Trend Score, which shows whether wallets are, on balance, accumulating or distributing coins. In recent weeks, accumulation has prevailed, with investors increasing their holdings.
On the monthly chart, the €50,000 to €60,000 range per bitcoin is important. This encompasses the highs of the 2021 bull market and the long consolidation period in the summer of 2024. Longer-term averages with a length of about four years are also currently in that area. On the monthly chart, you can focus on the 48-month MA or EMA.
The average over the past four years encompasses one complete cycle of bull and bear markets and is a good approximation of the average purchase price of investors who have been active during this period. In the past, bear market bottoms were formed around this average.
For the €50,000 and €60,000 zone to act as a springboard for the next bull market, we do not want to see a monthly close below €50,000. A brief dip below within the month, as in August 2024, is acceptable. If that is the case, this would be a mild bear market in many respects.
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Major Ethereum upgrade approaches
Glamsterdam, as the upgrade is called, does not yet have a definitive release date, but developers have entered the final testing phase for the planned features. If all goes well, the launch is expected in the second half of 2026.
The upgrade is being described as the biggest overhaul of the base layer since the Merge, the network's transition to proof of stake in 2022. It involves a series of adjustments aimed at making the network faster and fairer. One of the key components is the introduction of ePBS, short for Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation.
That may sound technical, but the problem it addresses is easy to understand. On Ethereum, a validator is appointed every few seconds to propose a new block. This block contains transactions, and the order of those transactions can have monetary value. In DeFi in particular, it can matter whether an order comes just before or just after another transaction. Smart bots can take advantage of this, sometimes at the expense of human users.
This extra value is called MEV: Maximal Extractable Value. It has been a contentious issue within the Ethereum community for years. Not all MEV is harmful, but the more problematic forms can feel like a hidden tax on users.
On top of that, assembling blocks has become increasingly complex. Many validators no longer build blocks themselves, but hire specialized external parties using software for that purpose. These parties compete to deliver the most attractive block, and validators typically select the one offering the highest reward.
The system works, but it makes Ethereum dependent on infrastructure outside the protocol. And when a small number of parties influence a large part of the block production, a concentration of power arises that does not sit comfortably with a decentralized network like Ethereum.
ePBS aims to improve this. The separation between the validator proposing a block and the party building the block will then be integrated into Ethereum itself. This reduces dependence on external parties, and the hope is that the value leaking through MEV will also decrease; a reduction of up to 70% has been mentioned on developer forums.
Glamsterdam also includes other improvements, such as parallel transaction processing and a refined gas pricing model. Together, these changes should create space for higher capacity on Ethereum itself. The promised gains in transactions per second and lower fees still need to be realized in practice, however.
In other news
Toss Bank tests stablecoins for everyday payments. The South Korean digital bank wants to investigate whether the Solana network is suitable for international money transfers. If successful, the partnership, with the Solana Foundation overseeing the experiments, could later be expanded to everyday payments and tokenized assets. The timing is relevant, as South Korea is developing regulations for stablecoins. For Solana, this is an opportunity to position itself as infrastructure for banks.
Bitcoin funds record outflows for the sixth week in a row. In total, investors withdrew 227 million dollars from ETFs last week. Over the six-week period, nearly six billion dollars has flowed out. Ether funds had a relatively modest outflow of 10 million dollars, while Solana, Ripple, and Hype funds posted positive numbers. Hyperliquid was the favorite with an inflow of nearly 30 million dollars. So far, fund flows suggest that the bear market is yet to lose momentum.
Oman centralizes bitcoin mining with a mandatory national mining pool. Licensed miners in the country must join Omanhash, an initiative launched by the Ministry of Transport, Communications, and Information Technology. In its first phase, the pool is expected to bring together around 10 EH/s of computing power, just over 1% of the total hash rate produced by bitcoin miners worldwide. Oman has been investing in large-scale mining and data centers for years. With this new structure, the country is bringing the sector more firmly under supervision.
A Japanese pension fund is turning to bitcoin as a hedge against currency risk. The National Business Corporate Pension Fund from Okayama plans to allocate about one percent of its assets in bitcoin starting from the 2026 fiscal year. The move is being framed as a way to protect against a weakening dollar. The fund manages approximately 136 million dollars for about 1,200 small and medium-sized enterprises and will gain exposure through a passive investment fund. Direct investments by pension funds remain rare, even in Japan. For these institutions, diversification carries more weight than short-term speculation.
Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the hosts reflect on the first accomplishment of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. As a central banker, he wants to exert less influence on financial markets. Sam Bankman-Fried is also discussed. The FTX founder appears to have changed little, even after being put behind bars. The hosts further talk about Strategy, Hyperliquid and the new Bitcoin payment protocol Ark. As always, the episode concludes with a market update.
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