Outside crypto, markets are turbulent
On the stock market, we're seeing a lot of red, particularly among AI stocks. The fact that the crypto market remains stable amidst this turmoil, and at times has even shown notable strength, is a notable signal. At the same time, crypto is being assigned an increasingly strategic role in Washington. Could these be the first signs of a new phase for the industry? We'll explore that and more in this edition of the Bitvavo Market News.
Market update
Bitcoin has largely traded between €54,000 and €57,000 for the past two weeks, a remarkably narrow price range. This is especially striking as conditions outside the crypto market are turbulent, including a sharply rising oil price due to unrest in Iran and significant price drops in AI stocks.
This relative strength is an early indication that we have reached the stage of the bear market where it is realistic to expect a trend reversal. In other words, the bear market may be nearing its bottom.
Another signal is the positive divergence between price action and indicators such as momentum, trading volume, on-chain data, and market sentiment. While the price continues to make new lows, the selling pressure behind those declines is beginning to weaken.
Collectively, this suggests that conditions are now different from three or six months ago. That's why we will be closely watching this summer for signs of a new upward trend, and ultimately a new bull market. Specifically, we'll be looking for a higher high above €70,300 from May 6, followed by a higher low than €50,600 from July 1, and ultimately a weekly close above the dominant average, currently at €73,000.
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What the US is planning for crypto
Scott Bessent used a gala dinner celebrating 250 years of the United States to deliver a remarkably candid message. The Secretary of the Treasury not only explained how America views the global economy but also how it intends to maintain its influence within it. Stablecoins, tokenization, and new payment systems all appear to play an important role in this.
Bessent calls his strategy economic statecraft: the deployment of economic power to protect American sovereignty. In his view, the post-war world order generated considerable prosperity but also exposed vulnerabilities. International supply chains proved less reliable than expected during crises, while cheap imports did not always outweigh the loss of domestic manufacturing capacity.
As a result, the focus is shifting from efficiency to resilience. The US aims to strengthen strategic industries, demand greater reciprocity from its trading partners, and use the dollar and its financial markets more deliberately as instruments of geopolitical influence.
In the previous century, according to Bessent, global trade mainly flowed through ports and across oceans. In this century, it increasingly flows through platforms, systems, and protocols. Whoever determines the technical and legal standards for these also acquires geopolitical influence. In this context, he explicitly highlighted digital assets, stablecoins, tokenization, and next-generation payment systems.
Washington is therefore not embracing decentralized technologies because of the ideal of independent and censorship-resistant money. The US government primarily views crypto as a new distribution channel for financial influence. Dollar-backed stablecoins make the dollar more readily available worldwide, while the underlying reserves can create additional demand for US government bonds.
For the crypto sector, this is a significant positive development overall. Digital assets are no longer treated exclusively as a difficult-to-regulate fringe phenomenon but as strategic infrastructure. This could accelerate regulation, attract institutional investments, and further connect public blockchains with the existing financial system. Players like Circle and BlackRock are leading the way, but crypto exchanges, developers, and investors also stand to benefit from the sector's increasing legitimacy.
Against this backdrop, the Clarity Act gains additional significance. The legislation aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. From Bessent's perspective, this is not a concession to the crypto sector, but an effort to build the financial infrastructure that America believes it will need in the years ahead.
Bitcoin can also benefit. Greater connection with the financial system increases the network's accessibility and legitimacy. At the same time, Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce, neutral, and stateless asset becomes even more pronounced in contrast to programmable dollars. The more often governments use money as an instrument of power, the clearer the value of an asset that exists outside those geopolitical dynamics.
In other news
Visa sees credit cards and stablecoins as the payment layer for AI agents. Credit cards remain well suited for larger purchases made on behalf of humans, such as flights or subscriptions. Stablecoins, meanwhile, are expected to handle small, frequent payments between machines. According to Visa, payment protocol x402 has already processed 109.6 million transactions, totaling 15 million dollars. This activity primarily took place on Base, Solana, and Polygon. Visa argues that the main bottleneck to further growth is no longer the payment itself, but the infrastructure surrounding it, including identity, consent, fraud prevention, and liability for errors.
Dutch and Belgian authorities arrest six suspects linked to an international investment fraud network. The organization operated as a legitimate business with approximately 20 call centers and over 700 employees posing as financial advisors. Globally, over 100 million euros was reportedly defrauded each month. In the Netherlands alone, 550 reports are linked to the network, totaling nearly 25 million euros in damages. Investors were lured in by professional-looking fake trading platforms that displayed fictitious profits, encouraging them to deposit increasing amounts of money. A reminder to stay vigilant!
Wall Street's central securities depository conducts first live transactions with on-chain stocks and government bonds. DTCC, which safeguards 114 trillion dollars, completed its first live conversion of traditional securities into blockchain-based tokens. These included Microsoft shares, Circle, the S&P 500, and US government bonds. Approximately forty financial and tech companies participated in the trial. In October, DTCC will open a service allowing affiliated firms to move securities between their traditional accounts and blockchain wallets. While this represents a significant step forward for financial market infrastructure, it does not yet amount to a fully open, blockchain-native stock market.
Digital euro enters final European negotiation phase. The European Parliament is set to negotiate with EU member states on the final details of the digital euro framework. At the same time, the ECB has selected 36 banks and payment providers, including Adyen, Revolut, Stripe, and SumUp, to participate in a twelve-month pilot starting in the second half of 2027. The digital euro should function both online and offline, be distributed via banks, and make Europe less dependent on American payment networks. It is expected to launch in 2029.
Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the changing role of crypto in the financial system takes center stage. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly names stablecoins and tokenization as part of America's geopolitical strategy. There's also attention for Dutch investment fraudsters, Strategy's latest plans, and signals that the bitcoin market may be starting to form a bottom.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.