Capitulation, but no bottom yet
Bear markets are characterized by capitulation: short, intense moments when doubt turns into heavy selling pressure. This cycle has already experienced several such shocks. The latest pushed the market back towards the previous low, though not yet into convincingly lower territory. In this edition of Bitvavo Market News, we look at the fragile interim phase as the market searches for direction. It is a period when different parts of the sector show how strong their foundations truly are.
Market update
Investors who bought near the top eventually face a choice on the way down: stay put and wait for better times, or accept their losses. The latter decision is sometimes rational and based on a plan agreed in advance, but often, emotions take over when the losses on a portfolio become unbearable.
During a bear market, there are brief periods when many of these loss-taking sales happen at once. Prices drop, investors sell. The price drops further, investors sell more. A flywheel of panic that only stops when the last hesitant holder is forced out. These moments are known as capitulations.
On a chart, you can recognize capitulations as a parabolic acceleration downward, accompanied by unusually high trading volume. We have had three such moments in this bear market: November 21, February 6, and June 5. The February event was the most severe, producing the largest price drop, the highest trading volume, and the biggest spike in realized losses according to on-chain data.
With a capitulation, the market can take a step down, entering a lower trading range, as happened in February. This time, the picture is different. Measured in U.S. dollars, the low in June was slightly below February's. Measured in euros, it was slightly above. Broadly speaking, the two bottoms are comparable. That is not yet evidence that the bear market is over. A first indication would be a clearly higher low, and we have not seen that yet.
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Crisis at Cardano
Cardano launched in 2017 as the academic alternative to Ethereum. Everything was meant to be scientifically substantiated, with peer-reviewed research, formal verification, and a development process that prioritized reliability over speed. This created a loyal following, but also a persistent criticism: Cardano promised a great deal, but the real-world results and corresponding adoption often came slowly.
That tension has become increasingly visible in recent weeks. JPG Store, for years the leading NFT marketplace on Cardano, shut down at the end of May. Shortly thereafter, TapTools announced it was scaling down operations. The news was painful as TapTools was an important analytics platform for the ecosystem and was widely used by many projects. Meanwhile, DeFi activity on the network has significantly decreased, and the price of ADA remains far below the peak of 2021.
Since the launch of the Voltaire era, Cardano has operated a form of on-chain governance, where so-called DReps vote on expenditures from the network's sizeable treasury. The aim was to make the network more decentralized and mature. But the system is now blocking important proposals. The Cardano Summit 2026 in Singapore was canceled after a funding proposal narrowly failed to secure the required majority. Other proposals related to research and further development have also encountered significant resistance.
For Charles Hoskinson, Cardano's founder and public face, this is an uncomfortable situation. He recently warned of a wave of project failures in the second half of 2026 and said he was no longer interested in managing a downturn. At the same time, he stressed that he no longer has the authority to make decisions unilaterally. There is a certain irony in that. Cardano set out to build decentralization into its governance, but when collective decision-making goes against its most influential leaders, the system starts to look more like paralysis.
To quell the resulting governance crisis, Hoskinson even suggested a radical option: the establishment of a new Cardano network that existing ADA holders could migrate to by exchanging their tokens for new ones. Essentially, a reset button for builders, but also a break with the community that made Cardano great.
This debate touches on a fundamental issue in the crypto market. How do you govern a decentralized network when great sums of money, competing interests, and a powerful founder all come together? Governance sounds like an elegant solution in calm markets. But in difficult times, you find out whether a system can still provide direction. Cardano is now undergoing that test in real time.
In other news
The market for ICOs has collapsed to its lowest level in years. In the second quarter of 2026, $58 million has so far been raised through ICOs, IDOs, and IEOs, significantly less than the $390 million in the first quarter. The number of offerings also fell sharply, from 105 to 37. The decline reflects weak performance from new tokens and changing investor behavior. Speculative interest seems to be shifting to other parts of the crypto market, while larger companies are increasingly opting for private funding rounds or traditional stock market listings.
American Bitcoin funds have recorded net outflows for a fifth consecutive week. From June 8 to June 12, investors withdrew $316 million. Spot funds for Ether and Solana also recorded outflows; only XRP and HYPE products showed modest inflows. There was one encouraging sign for Bitcoin: on Friday, the funds attracted fresh capital for the first time in twenty trading days. The overall weekly picture remains weak, but selling pressure seems to be easing somewhat.
The European crypto market faces a major shake-up as the MiCA deadline of July 1 approaches. Companies that have not yet obtained an official license will lose their temporary authorization to serve customers in the EU. This particularly affects the thousands of smaller providers that struggle to bear the costs and requirements of licensing. Europe is likely to end up with a crypto market that is cleaner and more tightly regulated, but also smaller. That is the price of stronger consumer protection: less choice for users and more market power among the largest players.
Japan's three largest banks to jointly issue a yen-backed stablecoin. MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho are aiming to launch the token in the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2027. The banks are establishing a joint council to work out the practical implementation under the guidance of the Japanese regulator, which has supported the initiative since November 2025. The move indicates growing interest in digital payments in Japan, where cash and credit cards still play a significant role.
Satoshi Radio: The most recent episode of Satoshi Radio takes a dive into the peculiar world of Strategy. The company invested 100 million dollars in Bitcoin and 100 million in its cash reserves. How did the market react to that? Additionally, the hosts cover the rise of Hyperliquid, the controversy surrounding Arthur Hayes, issues at Zcash, and growing pressure from the sector regarding the US Clarity Act. The broadcast concludes with a comprehensive market update.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.